Is Pakistan a Verge of Collapse !!?

 In 2022, Pakistan experienced a trifecta of challenges, as political unrest, an economic crisis, and destructive floods gripped the nation. Economically, the country is grappling with severe inflation, a declining currency, and critically low foreign reserves, posing significant concerns for its financial stability.



What happens when Pakistan defaults?

Catastrophic economic and social crises await Pakistanis in the event of a sovereign default, which may result in shortages of food, medicines, fuel, and the cash needed to import and purchase these essential goods.Previously profitable industries may suddenly become less valuable. Consumers may see increased inflation or higher-than-normal levels of unemployment. As a result, consumer confidence also suffers, meaning that people may be less willing to spend money than they would usually.
ACCORDING TO THE WORLD BANK    
Previously profitable industries may suddenly become less valuable
Consumers may see increased inflation or higher-than-normal levels of unemployment. As a result, consumer confidence also suffers, meaning that people may be less willing to spend money than they would usually.
Pakistan is experiencing severe economic challenges reflecting long-standing structural weaknesses.
 Pakistan made significant progress towards reducing poverty between 2001 and 2018 when the expansion of off-farm economic opportunities and increased inflow of remittances allowed over 47 million Pakistanis to rise out of poverty. However, this rapid poverty reduction has not fully translated into improved socio-economic conditions, as human capital outcomes have remained poor and stagnant, with high levels of stunting at 38 percent and learning poverty at 75 percent. In addition, reflecting a consumption-driven growth model, with limited productivity-enhancing investment and exports, strong economic growth often comes at a cost of economic imbalances and frequent macroeconomic crises. Long-term growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita therefore has been low, averaging only around 2.2 percent annually over 2000-22.

Pakistan’s economy is currently under severe stress with low foreign reserves, a depreciating currency, and high inflation.

 With high public consumption, economic growth increased substantively above potential in FY22 that led to strong pressures on domestic prices, external and fiscal sectors, the exchange rate, and foreign reserves. These imbalances were exacerbated by the catastrophic flooding in 2022, surging world commodity prices, tightening global financing conditions, and domestic political uncertainty. Furthermore, distortive policy measures, including periods of informal exchange rate restrictions and import controls, delayed the IMF-EFF program, and contributed to creditworthiness downgrades, lower confidence, high yields and interest payments, and the loss of access to international capital markets.

Economic activity has fallen with policy tightening, flood impacts, import controls, high borrowing and fuel costs, low confidence, and protracted policy and political uncertainty. 

The devastating floods, along with difficulties in securing quality fertilizers and animal feed, have reduced agricultural output and labor opportunities for low-income workers. Similarly, dwindling foreign reserves, import restrictions, flood impacts, high fuel costs, policy uncertainty, and the slowdown in domestic and global demand have affected industry and service sector activity. With the destruction of infrastructure and disrupted access to schools, medical facilities, and sanitation systems, the floods have negatively impacted health and education outcomes especially for rural areas, potentially affecting long-term human capital accumulation.




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